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General Economic Conditions

Firing on all Cylinders

Firing on all Cylinders
Generally speaking, the economy is firing on all cylinders as evidenced by S&P 500 25% earnings growth and 8% revenue growth in Q1 2018. Business leaders are feeling optimistic as capital spending growth in Q1 was up around 25%, its highest in seven years, and no doubt influenced by changes in the corporate tax code. Further evidence of the economic robustness can be… read more →

Are There Monsters Under My Bed?

Are There Monsters Under My Bed?
Warren Buffett once said of investing, "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." This contrarian perspective fairly describes my growing unease with the U.S. economy, much like a toddler hearing noises under their bed despite reassurances from their parents (favorable consensus economic forecasts). I can hear the pundits saying, "Mark, go back to bed. It's nothing.… read more →

Steady As She Goes

Steady As She Goes
We are 27 quarters into the current economic expansion, albeit the weakest on record with a historically low 2.1% average annual GDP growth rate. The following table summarizes the duration and growth rates of past economic expansions: As noted above, the average duration and GDP growth rate of prior economic expansions is approximately 6 years (25 quarters) and 4%, respectively,… read more →
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