Posts by: Mark Mansour

Are There Monsters Under My Bed?

Are There Monsters Under My Bed?
Warren Buffett once said of investing, "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." This contrarian perspective fairly describes my growing unease with┬áthe U.S. economy, much like a toddler hearing noises under their bed despite reassurances from their parents (favorable consensus economic forecasts). I can hear the pundits saying, "Mark, go back to bed. It's nothing.… read more →

Steady As She Goes

Steady As She Goes
We are 27 quarters into the current economic expansion, albeit the weakest on record with a historically low 2.1% average annual GDP growth rate. The following table summarizes the duration and growth rates of past economic expansions: As noted above, the average duration and GDP growth rate of prior economic expansions is approximately 6 years (25 quarters) and 4%, respectively,… read more →

Healthier Consumer = Slowing Economy?

Healthier Consumer = Slowing Economy?
Various measures of employment and personal income, while arguably uninspiring for a recovery, point to improving economic health for the U.S. consumer. ┬áMore specifically, first time jobless claims have maintained a downward slope over the last twelve months and the monthly change in non-farm payrolls has trended up over the last twelve months with recent October and November jobs data… read more →
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